In Nigeria, Polio Vaccine Workers Are Killed by Gunmen

At least nine polio immunization workers were shot to death in northern Nigeria on Friday by gunmen who attacked two clinics, officials said.

The killings, with eerie echoes of attacks that killed nine female polio workers in Pakistan in December, represented another serious setback for the global effort to eradicate polio.

Most of the victims were women and were shot in the back of the head, local reports said.

A four-day vaccination drive had just ended in Kano State, where the killings took place, and the vaccinators were in a “mop-up” phase, looking for children who had been missed, said Sarah Crowe, a spokeswoman for the United Nations Children’s Fund, one of the agencies running the eradication campaign.

Dr. Mohammad Ali Pate, Nigeria’s minister of state for health, said in a telephone interview that it was not entirely clear whether the gunmen were specifically targeting polio workers or just attacking the health centers where vaccinators happened to be gathering early in the morning. “Health workers are soft targets,” he said.

No one immediately took responsibility, but suspicion fell on Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group that has attacked police stations, government offices and even a religious leader’s convoy.

Polio, which once paralyzed millions of children, is now down to fewer than 1,000 known cases around the world, and is endemic in only three countries: Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Since September — when a new polio operations center was opened in the capital and Nigeria’s president, Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a special adviser for polio — the country had been improving, said Dr. Bruce Aylward, chief of polio eradication for the World Health Organization. There have been no new cases since Dec. 3.

While vaccinators have not previously been killed in the country, there is a long history of Nigerian Muslims shunning the vaccine.

Ten years ago, immunization was suspended for 11 months as local governors waited for local scientists to investigate rumors that it caused AIDS or was a Western plot to sterilize Muslim girls. That hiatus let cases spread across Africa. The Nigerian strain of the virus even reached Saudi Arabia when a Nigerian child living in hills outside Mecca was paralyzed.

Heidi Larson, an anthropologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who tracks vaccine issues, said the newest killings “are kind of mimicking what’s going on in Pakistan, and I feel it’s very much prompted by that.”

In a roundabout way, the C.I.A. has been blamed for the Pakistan killings. In its effort to track Osama bin Laden, the agency paid a Pakistani doctor to seek entry to Bin Laden’s compound on the pretext of vaccinating the children — presumably to get DNA samples as evidence that it was the right family. That enraged some Taliban factions in Pakistan, which outlawed vaccination in their areas and threatened vaccinators.

Nigerian police officials said the first shootings were of eight workers early in the morning at a clinic in the Tarauni neighborhood of Kano, the state capital; two or three died. A survivor said the two gunmen then set fire to a curtain, locked the doors and left.

“We summoned our courage and broke the door because we realized they wanted to burn us alive,” the survivor said from her bed at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital.

About an hour later, six men on three-wheeled motorcycles stormed a clinic in the Haye neighborhood, a few miles away. They killed seven women waiting to collect vaccine.

Ten years ago, Dr. Larson said, she joined a door-to-door vaccination drive in northern Nigeria as a Unicef communications officer, “and even then we were trying to calm rumors that the C.I.A. was involved,” she said. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars had convinced poor Muslims in many countries that Americans hated them, and some believed the American-made vaccine was a plot by Western drug companies and intelligence agencies.

Since the vaccine ruse in Pakistan, she said, “Frankly, now, I can’t go to them and say, ‘The C.I.A. isn’t involved.’ ”

Dr. Pate said the attack would not stop the newly reinvigorated eradication drive, adding, “This isn’t going to deter us from getting everyone vaccinated to save the lives of our children.”

Aminu Abubakar contributed reported from Kano, Nigeria.

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Business Week in Pictures

Phil Libin, the chief executive of Evernote, during a staff meeting at Evernote’s headquarters in Redwood City, Calif. Evernote is among the privately held Silicon Valley start-ups that are worth more than $1 billion. An unprecedented number of high technology start-ups, easily 25 and possibly exceeding 40, have crossed that threshold. Many employees are quietly growing rich, or at least building a big cushion against a crash, as they sell shares to outside investors. Airbnb, Pinterest, SurveyMonkey and Spotify are among the better-known privately held companies that have reached $1 billion.

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Big Bear locked down amid manhunt

The bustling winter resort of Big Bear took on the appearance of a ghost town Thursday as surveillance aircraft buzzed overhead and police in tactical gear and carrying rifles patrolled mountain roads in convoys of SUVs, while others stood guard along major intersections.

Even before authorities had confirmed that the torched pickup truck discovered on a quiet forest road belonged to suspected gunman Christopher Dorner, 33, officials had ordered an emergency lockdown of local businesses, homes and the town's popular ski resorts. Parents were told to pick up their children from school, as rolling yellow buses might pose a target to an unpredictable fugitive on the run.

By nightfall, many residents had barricaded their doors as they prepared for a long, anxious evening.

PHOTOS: A tense manhunt amid tragic deaths

"We're all just stressed," said Andrea Burtons as she stocked up on provisions at a convenience store. "I have to go pick up my brother and get him home where we're safe."

Police ordered the lockdown about 9:30 a.m. as authorities throughout Southern California launched an immense manhunt for the former lawman, who is accused of killing three people as part of a long-standing grudge against the LAPD. Dorner is believed to have penned a long, angry manifesto on Facebook saying that he was unfairly fired from the force and was now seeking vengeance.

Forest lands surrounding Big Bear Lake are cross-hatched with fire roads and trails leading in all directions, and the snow-capped mountains can provide both cover and extreme challenges to a fugitive on foot. It was unclear whether Dorner was prepared for such rugged terrain.

Footprints were found leading from Dorner's burned pickup truck into the snow off Forest Road 2N10 and Club View Drive in Big Bear Lake.

San Bernardino County Sheriff John McMahon said that although authorities had deployed 125 officers for tracking and door-to-door searches, officers had to be mindful that the suspect may have set a trap.

"Certainly. There's always that concern and we're extremely careful and we're worried about this individual," McMahon said. "We're taking every precaution we can."

PHOTOS: A fugitive's life on Facebook

Big Bear has roughly 400 homes, but authorities guessed that only 40% are occupied year-round.

The search will probably play out with the backdrop of a winter storm that is expected to hit the area after midnight.

Up to 6 inches of snow could blanket local mountains, the National Weather Service said.

FULL COVERAGE: Sweeping manhunt for rampaging ex-cop

Gusts up to 50 mph could hit the region, said National Weather Service meteorologist Mark Moede, creating a wind-chill factor of 15 to 20 degrees.

Extra patrols were brought in to check vehicles coming and going from Big Bear, McMahon said, but no vehicles had been reported stolen.

"He could be anywhere at this point," McMahon said. When asked if the burned truck was a possible diversion, McMahon replied: "Anything's possible."

Dorner had no known connection to the area, authorities said.

Craig and Christine Winnegar, of Murrieta, found themselves caught up in the lockdown by accident. Craig brought his wife to Big Bear as a surprise to celebrate their 28th wedding anniversary. Their prearranged dinner was canceled when restaurant owners closed their doors out of fear.

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Fate of Historic Landsat Mission Hinges on Upcoming Launch

Since 1972 the Landsat mission has been monitoring natural and human-made changes to our planet. But the continuity of that scientifically precious dataset could be lost unless all goes according to plan on Monday, when the Landsat 8 satellite is scheduled to be launched into orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Landsat 8 will take over for the hobbled 14-year old Landsat 7 that has been valiantly carrying the mission alone since December when, after 29 years in orbit, Landsat 5 began to be decommissioned after a gyroscope failure.

The launch is not likely to fail, but if it does, it won’t be the first time the continuity of the 40-year mission was jeopardized. Along the way funding has come under fire, ownership of the satellites has been transferred between government agencies and private companies, sensors have quit working, and one mission tragically failed to reach orbit. If Landsat 8 fails, Landsat 7 would run out of fuel near the end of 2016, before a replacement could be built and put into orbit.

“I’ve devoted the latter part of my career to the formulation and development of this mission,” the project’s lead scientist, James Irons, told Wired. “On Monday I go out there and look at my baby sitting on top of an enormous firecracker and hope everything goes well.”

“Yeah, I’ll be nervous.”

The scientists and engineers behind the Landsat mission will be hugely relieved once the craft is safely in place 700 kilometers above their heads and then begins beaming data back to Earth about a month later.

In addition to saving the mission from a gap in data, Landsat 8 — more officially known as the Landsat Data Continuity Mission – will boost the rate of coverage of the Earth and will also add more sensing capability and deliver better imagery than its predecessors.

Relying on Landsat 7 alone has meant only imaging the full Earth every 16 days. Once there are two eyes open, coverage will return to 8-day intervals, essentially doubling the resolution of landscape change that will be recorded.

“The major goal of the mission is for us to understand land cover and land use change, and determine the human impacts on the global landscape,” Irons said. “These changes are going on at rates unprecedented in human history.”

“Continuity is more important than ever.”

The new satellite will also add more sensing capability and deliver better imagery than its predecessors. Landsat 8 will measure all the spectral bands of its predecessors, but will add two new bands that are tailored for detecting the coastal zone and cirrus clouds.

The new satellite has a more advanced imaging design as well. Previous Landsat satellites used what is known as a whisk broom sensor system, where an oscillating mirror would sweep back and forth over a row of detectors that collect data across a 185-kilometer swath of the Earth. The new push system uses a very long array of more than 7,000 detectors that will view the 185 km swath simultaneously, alternately collecting light and recording data. This allows each detector to dwell on each pixel for a longer time, resulting in more detailed, accurate descriptions of the landscape.

Once Landsat 8 reaches orbit, the engineers will begin testing the spacecraft during the first week. The next few weeks will be dedicated to testing all the instruments. The satellite will then do a cross-over rendezvous with Landsat 7 to calibrate the two systems. Around day 25, the shutters will be opened and Landsat 8 will take its first look at Earth. By the end of May, the data should be flowing. The new satellite has a design life of five years, but it has enough fuel to operate for 10 years.

But first, the new craft has to get safely into orbit.

“I have a lot of assurance from everyone,” Irons said. “They are taking extraordinary care, proceeding very methodically, cautiously and rigorously.”

“Still, you realize all rocket launches have some inherent risk,” he said. “So, it’s just hold your breath and hope everything goes well.”

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Well: Think Like a Doctor: A Confused and Terrified Patient

The Challenge: Can you solve the mystery of a middle-aged man recovering from a serious illness who suddenly becomes frightened and confused?

Every month the Diagnosis column of The New York Times Magazine asks Well readers to sift through a difficult case and solve a diagnostic riddle. Below you will find a summary of a case involving a 55-year-old man well on his way to recovering from a series of illnesses when he suddenly becomes confused and paranoid. I will provide you with the main medical notes, labs and imaging results available to the doctor who made the diagnosis.

The first reader to figure out this case will get a signed copy of my book, “Every Patient Tells a Story,” along with the satisfaction of knowing you solved a case of Sherlockian complexity. Good luck.

The Presenting Problem:

A 55-year-old man who is recovering from a devastating injury in a rehabilitation facility suddenly becomes confused, frightened and paranoid.

The Patient’s Story:

The patient, who was recovering from a terrible injury and was too weak to walk, had been found on the floor of his room at the extended care facility, raving that there were people out to get him. He was taken to the emergency room at the Waterbury Hospital in Connecticut, where he was diagnosed with a urinary tract infection and admitted to the hospital for treatment. Doctors thought his delirium was caused by the infection, but after 24 hours, despite receiving the appropriate antibiotics, the patient remained disoriented and frightened.

A Sister’s Visit:

The man’s sister came to visit him on his second day in the hospital. As she walked into the room she was immediately struck by her brother’s distress.

“Get me out of here!” the man shouted from his hospital bed. “They are coming to get me. I gotta get out of here!”

His brown eyes darted from side to side as if searching for his would-be attackers. His arms and legs shook with fear. He looked terrified.

For the past few months, the man had been in and out of the hospital, but he had been getting better — at least he had been improving the last time his sister saw him, the week before. She hurried into the bustling hallway and found a nurse. “What the hell is going on with my brother?” she demanded.

A Long Series of Illnesses:

Three months earlier, the patient had been admitted to that same hospital with delirium tremens. After years of alcohol abuse, he had suddenly stopped drinking a couple of days before, and his body was wracked by the sudden loss of the chemical he had become addicted to. He’d spent an entire week in the hospital but finally recovered. He was sent home, but he didn’t stay there for long.

The following week, when his sister hadn’t heard from him for a couple of days, she forced her way into his home. There she found him, unconscious, in the basement, at the bottom of his staircase. He had fallen, and it looked as if he may have been there for two, possibly three, days. He was close to death. Indeed, in the ambulance on the way to the hospital, his heart had stopped. Rapid action by the E.M.T.’s brought his heart back to life, and he made it to the hospital.

There the extent of the damage became clear. The man’s kidneys had stopped working, and his body chemistry was completely out of whack. He had a severe concussion. And he’d had a heart attack.

He remained in the intensive care unit for nearly three weeks, and in the hospital another two weeks. Even after these weeks of care and recovery, the toll of his injury was terrible. His kidneys were not working, so he required dialysis three times a week. He had needed a machine to help him breathe for so long that he now had to get oxygen through a hole that had been cut into his throat. His arms and legs were so weak that he could not even lift them, and because he was unable even to swallow, he had to be fed through a tube that went directly into his stomach.

Finally, after five weeks in the hospital, he was well enough to be moved to a short-term rehabilitation hospital to complete the long road to recovery. But he was still far from healthy. The laughing, swaggering, Harley-riding man his sister had known until that terrible fall seemed a distant memory, though she saw that he was slowly getting better. He had even started to smile and make jokes. He was confident, he had told her, that with a lot of hard work he could get back to normal. So was she; she knew he was tough.

Back to the Hospital:

The patient had been at the rehab facility for just over two weeks when the staff noticed a sudden change in him. He had stopped smiling and was no longer making jokes. Instead, he talked about people that no one else could see. And he was worried that they wanted to harm him. When he remained confused for a second day, they sent him to the emergency room.

You can see the records from that E.R. visit here.

The man told the E.R. doctor that he knew he was having hallucinations. He thought they had started when he had begun taking a pill to help him sleep a couple of days earlier. It seemed a reasonable explanation, since the medication was known to cause delirium in some people. The hospital psychiatrist took him off that medication and sent him back to rehab that evening with a different sleeping pill.

Back to the Hospital, Again:

Two days later, the patient was back in the emergency room. He was still seeing things that weren’t there, but now he was quite confused as well. He knew his name but couldn’t remember what day or month it was, or even what year. And he had no idea where he was, or where he had just come from.

When the medical team saw the patient after he had been admitted, he was unable to provide any useful medical history. His medical records outlined his earlier hospitalizations, and records from the nursing home filled in additional details. The patient had a history of high blood pressure, depression and alcoholism. He was on a long list of medications. And he had been confused for the past several days.

On examination, he had no fever, although a couple of hours earlier his temperature had been 100.0 degrees. His heart was racing, and his blood pressure was sky high. His arms and legs were weak and swollen. His legs were shaking, and his reflexes were very brisk. Indeed, when his ankle was flexed suddenly, it continued to jerk back and forth on its own three or four times before stopping, a phenomenon known as clonus.

His labs were unchanged from the previous visit except for his urine, which showed signs of a serious infection. A CT scan of the brain was unremarkable, as was a chest X-ray. He was started on an intravenous antibiotic to treat the infection. The thinking was that perhaps the infection was causing the patient’s confusion.

You can see the notes from that second hospital visit here.

His sister had come to visit him the next day, when he was as confused as he had ever been. He was now trembling all over and looked scared to death, terrified. He was certain he was being pursued.

That is when she confronted the nurse, demanding to know what was going on with her brother. The nurse didn’t know. No one did. His urinary tract infection was being treated with antibiotics, but he continued to have a rapid heart rate and elevated blood pressure, along with terrifying hallucinations.

Solving the Mystery:

Can you figure out why this man was so confused and tremulous? I have provided you with all the data available to the doctor who made the diagnosis. The case is not easy — that is why it is here. I’ll post the answer on Friday.

Friday Feb. 8 4:13 p.m. | Updated Thanks for all your responses. You can read about the winner at “Think Like a Doctor: A Confused and Terrified Patient Solved.”

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Rules and Regulations: Post your questions and diagnosis in the comments section below.. The correct answer will appear Friday on Well. The winner will be contacted. Reader comments may also appear in a coming issue of The New York Times Magazine.

Correction: The patient’s eyes were brown, not blue.

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Trade Deficit Narrows, Brightening Outlook

The United States economy most likely expanded slightly in the fourth quarter, instead of contracting, according to trade data released Friday that suggested a surprise drop in gross domestic product reported last week may have been overstated.

The country’s trade deficit narrowed to $38.5 billion in December, its lowest reading in nearly three years, Commerce Department data showed. The decrease was driven by a drop in oil imports and a surge in exports. The overall trade gap was far smaller than analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

“Trade data for December paint a reassuring and encouraging picture of the U.S. economy at the end of last year,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that wholesale inventories unexpectedly declined in December, a factor that could hamper the stronger trade figures’ effect on growth.

Still, the two reports together suggested the government could revise up its reading on fourth-quarter G.D.P., which showed the economy contracting at a 0.1 percent annual rate. That decline was driven by an expected drop in exports, smaller gains in inventories and a plunge in military spending.

Barclays said that even with December’s decline in wholesale inventories, the economy most likely expanded 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, thanks to the higher export numbers in Friday’s trade report.

American exports increased by $8.6 billion in December over the year-ago month, lifted by sales of industrial supplies, including a $1.2 billion rise from November in nonmonetary gold.

Reflecting the country’s current boom in oil and natural gas, petroleum exports rose by nearly $1 billion during the month to a record high.

A fall in petroleum purchases led overall imports to decline by $4.6 billion in December from the year-ago period.

For the entire year, the country’s imports of crude oil fell to their lowest levels since 1997 in terms of volume.

Stocks prices on American exchanges rose as investors took note of the strong trade data, which included the United States figures as well as readings showing stronger exports and imports in China during January. The price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note also rose.

For all of 2012, the United States trade gap shrank by 3.5 percent, to $540.4 billion. Running trade deficits means the country loses dollars, which drags on the economy; rising exports reduce that effect.

Exports last year rose 4.4 percent.

Even the American trade balance with China had a silver lining. While imports from China increased to a record high last year, so did American exports there. The December trade deficit in goods with China, not seasonally adjusted, narrowed by $4.5 billion from the previous month on a drop in imports.

Also in December, United States wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell as auto dealers and agricultural suppliers drew down their stocks.

The Commerce Department said stocks of unsold goods at wholesalers dropped 0.1 percent during the month and grew less than initially estimated in November.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected wholesale inventories to rise 0.4 percent.

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Ex-cop at center of manhunt called 'depraved,' 'cowardly'

Those who knew Christopher Jordan Dorner during college expressed shock at the news that the former college football player is allegedly responsible for shootings that have left three people dead and two wounded.

Dorner attended Southern Utah University from 1997 to 2001 and graduated with a bachelor of science with a major in political science and a minor in psychology, a university spokesman said.

Neil Gardner, an assistant athletic director who works with the student athletes in media relations, interacted with Dorner when he was on the school’s football team during the 1999 and 2000 seasons. Gardner said Dorner was a backup running back who didn’t play a lot, but was “never a disgruntled guy.”

PHOTOS: Manhunt for ex-LAPD officer

“When he was in college he was a great kid,” Gardner said. “He was a kid you hoped would do well. He was polite. I liked him.” 

Jamie Usera, an attorney in Salem, Ore., said he met Dorner in the spring of 1998 at Southern Utah. Usera, who grew up in Alaska, said he and Dorner, an African American from Southern California, bonded over their shared feelings of culture shock that came with being outsiders on the predominantly white, Mormon campus.

Usera and Dorner eventually joined the football team as running backs and became good friends, Usera said. They shared long hours on the practice field, but neither saw much playing time and both decided to quit the team after two years.

PHOTOS: Manhunt for ex-LAPD officer

The friendship endured throughout their remaining years at the school. Usera said he introduced Dorner to the world of hunting and other outdoor sporting. Usera recalled frequent trips into the Utah desert to hunt rabbits with Dorner.

Nothing about Dorner in college raised any red flags that he was mentally unstable or capable of such violence, Usera said.

“He was a typical guy. I liked him an awful lot,” Usera said. “Nothing about him struck me as violent or irrational in any way.  He was opinionated, but always seemed level-headed.”

Usera said he and Dorner frequently had lively discussions. A recurring theme was race relations in the U.S., and the two often had heated but respectful arguments about the extent of racism in the county, Usera said.

A manifesto that police say was published on what they believe was Dorner’s Facebook page  made reference to Usera. A section read:

“James Usera, great friend, attorney, father, husband, and the most cynical/blatant/politically incorrect friend a man can have. Best quality about you in college and now is that you never sugar coated the truth. I will miss our political discussions that always turned argumentative. Thanks for introducing me to outdoor sports like fishing, hunting, mudding, and also respect for the land and resources. Us city boys don’t get out much like you Alaskans. You even introduced me to PBR. A beer, that when you’re a poor college student is completely acceptable to get buzzed off of. I’m sorry I’ll never get to go on that moose and bear hunt with you. I love you bro.”

Usera could not recall Dorner ever discussing a dream or plan to become a police officer. He remembered his friend talking excitedly with a Marine or Navy recruiter on campus when he was either considering enlisting or after he had already made the decision to do so.

The two lost touch quickly after graduating, Dorner said, but later reconnected out of the blue about four years ago with a phone call. Dorner made passing reference to his discipline problems with the LAPD but did not go into detail. Usera said Dorner did not seem troubled during the 10- to 15-minute conversation. A few text messages followed in the days after the call, but Usera said he had not heard from Dorner since.

“Of all the people I hung out with in college, he is the last guy I would have expected to be in this kind of situation.”

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Investigators Pinpoint a Short Circuit Within a 787 Dreamliner Battery

The National Transportation Safety Board believes an internal short circuit within a single cell inside a lithium-ion battery led to a fire aboard a Boeing 787, shedding new light on the battery problem that has grounded every one of the 50 Dreamliners in service worldwide.

The agency said Wednesday that it has completed disassembling the 32-volt battery that caught fire on a Japan Airlines 787 after passengers had disembarked in Boston on January 7. Investigators found evidence that the fire — called “thermal runaway” — started with a short circuit in cell no 6. There are eight cells in the 63-pound lithium-ion battery, and the NTSB said it found evidence that cell no. 6 sustained multiple short circuits. Investigators have ruled out mechanical damage as a cause of the short, as well as the possibility that the short circuit occurred between the cell and the battery case. Rather, the damage to the case containing the battery was caused by the fire that resulted from the short.

“The short circuit came first, the thermal runaway followed in cell no. 6 and it propagated to the other cells,” NTSB chairman Deborah Hersman told reporters in a press conference this morning. Hersman said they have yet to find the cause of the short circuit but are looking at several possibilities.

“We are looking at the state of charge of the battery cells, we are looking at manufacturing processes and we are looking at the design of the battery,” she said.

The new information came the same day that Boeing flew a 787 from its paint facility in Texas back to its factory north of Seattle. The flight was a one-time-only ferry flight approved by the Federal Aviation Administration, and only the pilots were allowed aboard. They closely monitored the battery during the flight to Paine Field and experienced no problems during the three-and-a-half-hour trip. It was the first flight of a 787 since the entire fleet of Dreamliners was grounded pending an investigation by the FAA.

Late today the FAA announced they will allow limited test flights by Boeing to collect data about the battery and electrical systems during flight. The test flights will be flown over unpopulated areas with just the Boeing crew on board the aircraft. Like today’s flight, pilots will carefully monitor the batteries and will be required to land immediately in the case of a battery malfunction. One of Boeing’s 787 flight-test work horses, ZA005, will be used for the flights.

Boeing, along with investigators in the United States and Japan, have focused on the lithium-ion battery from the start. And today’s announcement that the problem appears to have started with a short circuit within a cell is exactly what battery expert Dr. K.M. Abraham suggested was the problem when we spoke with him last month. The lithium-ion cells within the 787 batteries use a graphite-coated copper anode and a lithium cobalt oxide-coated aluminum cathode. The anode and cathode are separated by a very thin polyethylene film known as the separator.

The separator is roughly the same thickness as cellophane and behaves in a similar way. There doesn’t need to be a tear or a hole to create a short circuit that can cause thermal runaway. The material is very thin – typically around 25 microns, according to Abraham – and small irregularities in the thickness can be enough to lead to problems. A section of the separator that is just 20 microns thick might be enough.

“It could be a stretch, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a big hole, just a weak point where you have low resistance,” Abraham said. “It can be a problem when you have such a very large surface area electrode where there is a lot of inhomogeneity in the current distribution.”

The variable thickness of the separator material could be a result of manufacturing, but also could occur during charging and discharging of the battery. A very small short might lead to the growth of a lithium crystal within the battery cell.

“Sometimes what happens is you start with a very small dendrite growth due to an internal short,” Abraham says of the small fibers of lithium metal that can grow in the cell, “but it gradually heats up because gas can pass through it and heat up that location.”

And just like cellophane, the separator can shrink when it is heated, Abraham says, “once it starts heating up slowly it will shrink and then a small short will become a massive short.”

Abraham, agreeing with comments made by Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk, said the relatively large cells in the 787 battery pose a problem. The large surface area of each cell makes the separators particularly susceptible to shorting, Abraham said. The problem of the separator changing thickness due to heating is something addressed in the batteries used in the Chevrolet Volt. The separator is less likely to change thickness due to heating, according to Abraham.

“That was overcome in the Chevrolet Volt separator where they reinforced the separator with ceramic particles to mitigate the shrinking problem,” he said.

According to the NTSB, the separators used in the 787 batteries are not reinforced with ceramic particles.

The NTSB chairwoman told reporters the agency also is looking into the certification of the Dreamliner. Because the 787 is replete with new technology, the FAA had to create nine special conditions for use of the lithium-ion batteries. Much of the testing was performed by Boeing, which performed several rigorous tests including one so grueling as to be called “abusive” to the battery, Hersman said.

Boeing saw no evidence during testing of a problem that would lead to the cell failure propagation the NTSB saw in the battery that caught fire in Boston. Hersman also said Boeing’s tests indicated it was extremely unlikely that a battery problem would generate smoke, much less fire. The difference between the predicted likelihood and the recent events did not sit well with Hersman.

“The design and certification assessment and the assumptions that were made were not born out by what we saw,” she said, speaking about the battery fires in Boston and Japan. “We had two events in two weeks on two separate aircraft. The fleet has less than 100,000 hours and [Boeing] did not expect in their assessment to see a smoke event in but less than 1 in every 10,000,000 hours.”

In a statement released after the NTSB press conference, Boeing said it welcomes the progress being made in the investigation. The company also said it worked within FAA guidelines during certification.

“The 787 was certified following a rigorous Boeing test program and an extensive certification program conducted by the FAA,” the statement read. “We provided testing and analysis in support of the requirements of the FAA special conditions associated with the use of lithium ion batteries.”

Hersman said the NTSB will release an interim report within 30 days. That means the fleet most likely will remain grounded at least another month. Boeing is working on several possible fixes to the issue, including designs that will better protect the electrical bays and aircraft from any potential fire damage.

Meanwhile, several airlines, including All Nippon Airways and United, continue cancelling 787 flights many weeks into the future.

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Well: The 'Monday Morning' Medical Screaming Match

I did not think I would ever see another “morbidity and mortality” conference in which senior doctors publicly attacked their younger colleagues for making medical errors. These types of heated meetings were commonplace when I was a medical student but have largely been abandoned.

Yet here they were again on “Monday Mornings,” a new medical drama on the TNT network, based on a novel by Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN’s chief medical correspondent and one of the executive producers of the show. Such screaming matches may make for good television, but it is useful to review why new strategies have emerged for dealing with medical mistakes.

So-called M&M conferences emerged in the early 20th century as a way for physicians to review cases that had either surprising outcomes or had somehow gone wrong. Although the format varied among institutions and departments, surgery M&Ms were especially known for their confrontations, as more experienced surgeons often browbeat younger doctors into admitting their errors and promising to never make them again.

Such conferences were generally closed door — that is, attended only by physicians. Errors were a private matter not to be shared with other hospital staff, let alone patients and families.

But in the late 1970s, a sociology graduate student named Charles L. Bosk gained access to the surgery department at the University of Chicago. His resultant 1979 book, “Forgive and Remember,” was one of the earliest public discussions of how the medical profession addressed its mistakes.

Dr. Bosk developed a helpful terminology. Technical and judgment errors by surgeons could be forgiven, but only if they were remembered and subsequently prevented by those who committed them. Normative errors, which called into question the moral character of the culprit, were unacceptable and potentially jeopardized careers.

Although Dr. Bosk’s book was more observational than proscriptive, his depiction of M&M conferences was disturbing. I remember attending a urology M&M as a medical student in which several senior physicians berated a very well-meaning and competent intern for a perceived mistake. The intern seemed to take it very well, but my fellow students and I were shaken by the event, asking how such hostility could be conducive to learning.

There were lots of angry accusations in the surgical M&Ms in the pilot episode of “Monday Mornings.” In one case, a senior doctor excoriated a colleague who had given Tylenol to a woman with hip pain who turned out to have cancer. “You allowed metastatic cancer to run amok for four months!” he screamed.

If this was what Dr. Bosk would have called a judgment error, the next case raised moral issues. A neurosurgeon had operated on a boy’s brain tumor without doing a complete family history, which would have revealed a disorder of blood clotting. The boy bled to death on the operating table. “The boy died,” announced the head surgeon, “because of a doctor’s arrogance.”

In one respect, it is good to see that the doctors in charge were so concerned. But as the study of medical errors expanded in the 1990s, researchers found that the likelihood of being blamed led physicians to conceal their errors. Meanwhile, although doctors who attended such conferences might indeed not make the exact same mistakes that had been discussed, it was far from clear that M&Ms were the best way to address the larger problem of medical errors, which, according to a 1999 study, killed close to 100,000 Americans annually.

Eventually, experts recommended a “systems approach” to medical errors, similar to what had been developed by the airline industry. The idea was to look at the root causes of errors and to devise systems to prevent them. Was there a way, for example, to ensure that the woman with the hip problem would return to medical care when the Tylenol did not help? Or could operations not be allowed to occur until a complete family history was in the chart? Increasingly, hospitals have put in systems, such as preoperative checklists and computer warnings, that successfully prevent medical errors.

Another key component of the systems approach is to reduce the emphasis on blame. Even the best doctors make mistakes. Impugning them publicly — or even privately — can make them clam up. But if errors are seen as resulting from inadequate systems, physicians and other health professionals should be more willing to speak up.

Of course, the systems approach is not perfect. Studies continue to show that physicians conceal their mistakes. And elaborate systems for preventing errors can at times interfere with getting things done in the hospital.

Finally, it is important not to entirely remove the issue of responsibility. Sad to say, there still are physicians who are careless and others who are arrogant. Even if today’s M&M conferences rarely involve screaming, supervising physicians need to let such colleagues know that these types of behaviors are unacceptable.

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Barron H. Lerner, M.D., professor of medicine at New York University Langone Medical Center, is the author, most recently, of “One for the Road: Drunk Driving Since 1900.”

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U.S. Official Faults F.A.A. for Missing 787 Battery Risk

The nation’s top transportation safety official said Thursday that the Federal Aviation Administration accepted test results from Boeing in 2007 that failed to properly assess the risks of smoke or fire leaking from the batteries on Boeing’s new 787 jets.  

Deborah Hersman, the chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board, told reporters that the problems seemed to have originated in the battery, when one of the eight cells had a short circuit and the fire spread to the rest of the cells. But she said that Boeing’s tests showed no indication that the new lithium-ion batteries on its 787 planes could erupt in flame and concluded they were likely to emit smoke less than once in every 10 million flight hours.

Once the planes were placed in service, though, the batteries overheated and emitted smoke twice last month, and caused one fire, after about 50,000 hours of commercial flights.

“The assumptions used to certify the batteries must be reconsidered,” Ms. Hersman said.

Late Thursday, the F.A.A. said it would allow Boeing to conduct test flights with its 787 to collect data on the batteries and the plane’s electrical system. The agency said the flights “will be an important part of our efforts to ensure the safety of passengers and return these aircraft to service.” It did not immediately specify the number of test flights or when they would begin.

Ms. Hersman, at her news conference, said that before the F.A.A. certified the batteries, Boeing’s tests found no evidence that a short circuit in one of the eight cells could spread to other cells.

But Ms. Hersman said the fire on a 787 parked at an airport in Boston on Jan. 7 started with a short-circuit in one cell and then spread to the other cells.

She said investigators have still not been able to tell what caused the short-circuit in that cell and led to a “thermal runaway,” overheating up to 500 degrees, that then cascaded to the rest of the cells.

Still, she said, “This investigation has demonstrated that a short-circuit in a single cell can propagate to adjacent cells and result in a fire.”

Battery experts said that the finding pinpointed one step Boeing could take to make the batteries safer: It could expand the size of the battery to create more physical separation between the cells. Ralph J. Brodd, a battery industry consultant in Henderson, Nev., said Boeing and its Japanese battery subcontractor, GS Yuasa, could make the design and manufacturing changes needed to do that fairly quickly.

But unless investigators can determine what caused the first cell to short-circuit, federal officials said, Boeing will also be required to make other changes to prevent any of the possible causes and to better contain or vent any overheated materials. And given the safety board’s findings about how poorly Boeing gauged the original safety risks, the F.A.A. is likely to take its time in assessing the validity of any new tests.

The 787 is the first commercial airplane to use large lithium-ion batteries for major flight functions. All 50 of Boeing’s 787s that were delivered to airlines have been grounded since mid-January, when a 787 made an emergency landing in Japan after the pilots smelled smoke in the cockpit. That incident occurred nine days after the Boston fire.

In searching for the cause of the fire on the plane in Boston, Ms. Hersman said the safety board was still looking at the battery’s charging mechanism and potential manufacturing defects or contamination, and whether the cells were not as isolated as they should have been.

Investigators have so far ruled out two possible reasons for the short-circuit — a mechanical or electrical shock from outside the battery.

“We have not yet identified what the cause of the short-circuit is,” she said. “We are looking at the design of the battery, at the manufacturing, and we are also looking at the cell charging. There are a lot of things we are still looking at.”

Boeing said in a statement Thursday that it viewed the safety board’s findings as narrowing the likely source of the problem to within the battery itself, as opposed to other components of the plane’s extensive new electric system. But company officials said they also recognized that it would take a combination of changes to restore confidence in the battery system.

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